According to a statement issued today by the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS), the number of Palestinians in historical Palestine will exceed the number of Jews over time
The number of Palestinians in historical Palestine totaled 5.6 million at the end of 2011. The number of Jews living in historical Palestine totaled 5.8 million. Based on estimates of the Israeli Department of Statistics for 2010, the number of Palestinians and Jews will total about 6.3 million each by the end of 2015, providing current growth rates remain the same. However, the number of Palestinians in historical Palestine will total 7.2 million compared to 6.8 Jews by the end of 2020.
Number of Palestinian and Jews living in Historical Palestine
The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics presents the following information about Palestinians at the end of 2011:
Increase in world population of Palestinians
The projected number of Palestinians in the world is 11.22 million, of whom 4.23 million are in the Palestinian Territory, 1.37 million in Israel, 4.99 million in Arab countries and around 636 thousand in other countries.
More than one-third of population in Gaza Strip
The projected number of Palestinians living in the Palestinian Territory at the end of 2011 is 4.2 million, of whom around 2.6 million reside in the West Bank and 1.6 million in the Gaza Strip.
Of every 100 persons in the Palestinian Territory, about 44 are refugees: 42 per 100 in the West Bank and 58 per 100 in the Gaza Strip.
Decline in fertility rate in recent years
The total fertility rate declined in 2010 to 4.2 births compared with 6 births in 1997. The rate in Gaza Strip in 2010 was 4.9 births compared to 3.8 births in the West Bank. These rates have been stable for the past few years with no significant changes.
Total Fertility Rate in the Palestinian Territory, Selected Years
There has been a decline in the detailed fertility rate, particularly in the early reproductive years (15-24 years).
Age-Specific Fertility Rates in the Palestinian Territory, Selected Years
Decrease in average household size
The average household size in the Palestinian Territory is 5.8 persons in 2011 compared with 6.4 in 1997: 5.6 persons in the West Bank and 6.3 persons in the Gaza Strip.
Average Household Size in the Palestinian Territory by Region, 1997, 2011
Falling crude birth and mortality rates
The crude birth rate is 32.8 births for every 1000 of population: in the West Bank the figure is 30.1 compared to 37.1 in Gaza Strip. The rate is expected to decline to 31.9 in 2015.
The crude death rate is 4.0 deaths for every 1000 of population: in the West Bank the figure is 4.1 compared to 3.9 in Gaza Strip. The rate is expected to decline to 3.6 in 2015.
High fertility rate among Palestinians in Jordan
The total fertility rate for Palestinians living is Jordan is 3.3 births compared to 2.5 in Syria and 3.2 in Lebanon.
Selected Demographic Indicators by Country of Residence, 2010
Youthful Palestinian population in Israel
The number of Palestinians living in Israel is 1.37 million, of whom about 37.5% are aged less than 15 years compared to 3.9% aged 65 years and above.
Higher fertility rate among Palestinians in Israel than among Jews
The total fertility rate in 2010 among Palestinians living in Israel was 3.5 births compared to 3.0 births among Jews. The average Palestinian household size in Israel is 4.8 persons. The crude birth rate of Palestinians in Israel exceeded 26.2 births for every 1000 of the population.