An Analysis by an Egyptian Woman

Ghada Chehade is an independent political analyst, an academic, a poet and activist living in Montreal Canada. She is a PhD Candidate and Sessional Instructor, Canada Graduate Scholar (SSHRC). She is of Palestinian-Egyptian descent. Ghada published an analysis of the current situation in Egypt on GlobalResearch.ca, the Center for Research on Globalization. Today, Ghada sent me her latest article of January 31, 2011, titled “Israel’s Fears Over the Egyptian Uprising – a Very Good Sign for People of the Middle East”.

Anyone who knows anything about the regime of Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak, knows that one of the main roles of his government has been to protect and buffer Israel (and its illegal and genocidal crimes against the Palestinians). So recent reports that Israel is afraid and worried about the Egyptian revolution [1] is a cause for celebration for all Arabs everywhere and for all those who stand against injustice, colonial apartheid, and Israel’s illegal and brutal occupation of the Palestinians.

All Arabs grew up hearing one repeated political mantra: “If Egypt rises, we will all rise.” And now as Egypt is in the process of a magnificent people’s uprising it has sparked hope for the region and most of all for Palestine. The hope is that, triggered by the revolution in Tunisia, the Egyptian revolution will spread like wild fire and crescendo into a regional revolt against despots and dictators throughout the entire Middle East.

Real Change on the Brink?

If the Arab people succeed in ousting the despotic, treasonous rulers of the Middle East—who oppress their own people while serving the neo-colonial, imperial, and/or geo-political interests of the West, including tolerating and facilitating Israel’s crimes in Palestine—then they may finally be able to live as free and self-determining peoples and eventually help to bring the same reality to the Palestinians. Even if other countries in the region do not follow suit with analogous revolutions, however, what happens in Egypt in the months and years following the capitulation of Mubarak, will still resonate throughout the Middle East and may greatly alter the geo-political reality of the region. This is because Egypt is the largest in population and is the most politically and culturally significant Arab country in the Middle East.

While they have not played a leading role (or even a significant one) in the uprising, the Muslim Brotherhood would be the likely winner of a genuinely free election in Egypt according to most opinion polls [2]. As Gwynne Dyer explains:

“…the first thing they [Muslim Brotherhood] have promised to do if they win power is to hold a referendum on Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel. And most Egyptians, according to the same polls, would vote to cancel it” [3].

A new Egyptian stance on Israel would have far-reaching repercussions for the region and hopefully, finally for the people of Palestine. Whether or not the Muslim Brotherhood will come to power (and I do not claim that this would be as good for the Egyptians as it may be for the Palestinians) and whether or not there will be a cessation to Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel remains to be seen, but even a suggestion of such changes begins to paint a potentially very different geo-political landscape.
Who Could/Should Rule Egypt?

The question of who is best suited to rule Egypt once Mubarak is gone is a tough one and is still up in the air. The revolution seems to lack any real leadership, save for Mohamed ElBaradei who may be emerging as the default voice of the opposition. However, Mohamed ElBaradei is not the right person to head any permanent post-revolution government, for numerous reasons:

  • The very fact that Western powers seem to support or prefer him [4] is problematic to those opposed to U.S and western meddling in the region. Egyptians do not want or need another possible western client as president.
  • Mohamed ElBaradei’s status as a trustee of Zbigniew Brzezinski’s (a globalist and realpolitik imperial strategist for the U.S) International Crisis Group [5] is a red flag and an indication of what his agenda may be and where his allegiances may lie (with power politics/U.S domination proponents and globalists of the West)
  • Being an outsider, ElBaradei does not know enough about Egypt’s internal politics and realities, and thus could not respond to and assess the true needs of the people and the country [6].

How will Egypt survive without U.S “aid”?

If the Muslim Brotherhood (or any group unwilling to play ball with Israel and the U.S for that matter) are elected post-revolution, then Egypt will surely loose its I.5 billion dollars in annual “aid” (i.e bribery) from the U.S. However, this does not mean that the country will starve.

China, Russia and/or Iran may step in to pick up the financial slack (though nowhere in scope to the amount of the U.S.) Iran would be more than happy to open another front to help de-stabilize Israel. Or perhaps Saudi Arabia will step in to counter-act and benefit from the Unites States weakness in the region, opening a backdoor channel or pipeline to Egypt.

Many Egyptians have been conditioned to live in utter fear of “being taken over by Iran” [7] and may be reluctant to receive patronage from it. Ideally the best way forward for Egypt is for it to be truly autonomous and self-sufficient. However, the reality of the geo-politics of the region and of Egypt’s impoverished economic conditions dictates that Egypt may need to continue receiving some form of external “aid” from an outside party or parties.  And it cannot be refuted that it is better for Egypt to be indebted to countries that are not beholden to Israel, than for it to continue to serve as an Israeli-U.S patsy and facilitate the genocide of Palestinians.

Three Possible Alternative Outcomes of the Uprising [8]

As a human being (and a Palestinian-Egyptian) I am extremely hopeful and optimistic about the reality of a full-fledged people’s revolution (with the emergence of a new and sincere—i.e true to the people—opposition leadership in Egypt) that will resonate and spread to other Middle Eastern dictatorial and/or client regimes! At the same time, from an analytical perspective, I am aware that there are three other distinct possibilities.
The aforementioned Arab maxim that translates into “If Egypt rises, we will all rise,” is also well known to the Israelis (and the Anglo-American Middle East policy apparatus). In light of this, any consequences afforded to Israel and the U.S may be viewed accordingly.

First Possibility

One possible outcome is that the people’s revolt will bring down the Mubarak regime and replace it with a reactionary (albeit elected) government headed by the Muslim brotherhood.  Israel and the U.S will view this in the context of their other client states in the region, fearing a total collapse of their Middle East agenda. This situation would be highly problematic and alarming to Israel and the U.S (and their allies). Any resultant military actions and/or sanctions (including the denial of communications services) by the West would be viewed as war on the people of the region. This situation could easily escalate into full-blown regional revolutionary war (painted in the western media as an “Islamic threat”) that would likely draw in other players with interests in the region such as China, Iran and Russia. Relative to the question of the Palestinian occupation, this is the most favourable of the three alternatives

Second Possibility

Another possibility is that a functionally similar replacement-government is put in (under the leadership of ElBaradei or another Western favourite) as a result of co-option of the revolution, and with complicity of the army. In this case the people will have (the appearance of) a new government and some domestic cosmetic changes but ultimately will still feel that underlying issues concerning Israel and U.S interference will remain unresolved. As a result the tension will continue and is likely to boil over into another popular uprising in the future. Israel and the U.S would surely see this as an option for controlling and containing similar rebellions in neighbouring client states.

Third (and hopefully, for the sake of the Egyptian people, the least likely) Possibility

Through covert and/or direct support from Israel and the West, Mubarak manages to either crush or severely undermine the people’s uprising and remain in power or rule from the sidelines through a new Western client government. The West will view this as a sure-fire opportunity to defeat or intimidate any would-be rebellions in neighbouring states and to recalibrate their grip on Arab despots/ their regional patsies (i.e. do what you are told because you are disposable)– not to mention that the people of neighbouring Arab states would be greatly discouraged from persisting in their own revolutions if Mubarak is able to successfully counter the popular uprising. In this scenario most of Egypt will continue to live as it has until very recently. This would be the worst possible outcome relative to both the Egyptian people and most people of the region, especially Palestinians!

References:

  • [1] http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/israel-anxiously-monitoring-egypt-other-regional-states/articleshow/7391796.cms
  • http://hken.ibtimes.com/articles/106969/20110131/egypt-israel.htm
  • http://www.newser.com/article/d9l26me80/israel-watches-egypt-uprising-with-fear-its-important-ally-could-be-destabilized.html
  • [2] http://www.ocregister.com/opinion/army-286175-egypt-police.html
  • [3] Ibid.
  • [4] http://www.thestate.com/2011/01/28/1668580/us-says-confinement-of-elbaradei.html
  • http://www.ocregister.com/opinion/army-286175-egypt-police.html
  • [5] http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/private/person.asp?personId=22885182&privcapId=6043529&previousCapId=79327238&previousTitle=Europe’s%20World
  • [6] http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/africa-mideast/elbaradei-is-far-from-an-easy-saviour-for-egyptians/article1885726/
  • [7] For an example of such conditioning see- http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704457604576011643624083766.html
  • [8] Special thanks to Silvestre Lilly for his contribution to the formulation of these

7 comments to An Analysis by an Egyptian Woman

  • michael

    I have met some Egyptian people over here in Australia, and they are very, very nice people.
    I once beleived all the lies about Jews being the most vilified race etc, until I had my eyes opened throught the atrocities they commit against other races.
    They were heavily involved in the African slave trade, yet the American Hollywood Jews only focus on the white involvement, they also portray our white women as loose, immoral and sluts in their anti-white racist films and television programmes.
    Here in Australia an Australian man has been jailed for three years for ‘racial vilification’ against Jews here in Perth, Western Australia. All he said was that they were racist and their religion was evil in regards to their occupation of Palestine.
    The Jewish council over here is setting up racial vilification laws that only persecute white people and don’t protect us from race hate crimes, which we are now experiancing due to high influxes of 3rd world immigrants, espeically from black Africans.
    I have seen Jewish leaders gloating over my race’s demise, due to Multiculturalism, which is only enforced in white countries, that the Jews are behind.
    I have learnt it was Russian Jews that overthrew the Russian Monachy and caused over 20 million deaths of white Russians, which makes their ‘Holocaust” pale in comparison.
    I now understand why Hitler came to power and why he did what he did, I have read reports of how the Jews controlled the banks, real estate etc in Germany to such an extent, German women were forced to prostitute themselves to save their families.
    I have read some Jewish Rabbi text’s describing my people (Gentiles) as to be eliminated form the earth
    The Jewish British Labour politican, Jack Straw, commentated recently that ‘The English were not a race worth saving”
    I see millions of Americans starving, homeless, whilst trillions of their dollars every year are sent to Isreal, I see Mexicans and other illegals flooding America foreever changing the country and it is the Jewish media and their control on American politcs allowing and encouraging it.

    I see my race’s own extermination in the near future due to Multiculturalism and it is the Jews behind it.

  • Jake

    I agree with the above post. I have spent a fair amount of time living in and traveling around several countries in the Middle East. Although I have blue eyes, fair skin and blond hair, I have yet to meet any Middle Eastern person who didn’t show me anything but friendliness and genuine kindness. My Arabic language skills are pretty good, so I can tell if someone were to verbally hold me in contempt.
    The only problems I’ve ever had was with Israeli citizens.
    One truly wonders at the behavior and contempt these people show for the rest of the human race.

  • joe six million pac.

    Good new for the Arabs. Always wondered why the haven’t stuck together and resolved Things with their numbers. The 6million dollar question should be….. if Israel dissolves where are millions of gods pets going to relocate. The timber in America has almost all been riddled by termites.

  • JD

    The Muslim Brotherhood would impose just another form of slavery. The Egyptian people must exit this revolt with a free society which tolerates all faiths, including the Jewish faith. This revolt must not end until six basic human rights are established. They are as follows:

    1.The Right to Keep and Bare Arms. This right protects all other rights.
    2.Freedom of Religion and Worship.
    3.Freedom of Speech
    4.The Right to Privacy
    5.Protection From Unreasonable Search and Seizures
    6.Free Commerce and Trade

    The above fundamental rights protects create a free society. America for the most part enjoyed those rights, but as the centuries passed by power slowly gravitated to the Federal Government. Centralized Power is always evil.

    In the Eight Grade I was given the assignment to write my definition of “Democracy.”
    My father was an Italian immigrant so I figured he could give me so good pointers. So, when I walked into the house I asked, “Hey Pop, what’s your definition of Democracy?”
    He said, “You mean the American Republic? That’s easy son. It’s a collection of dictatorships!”

    I responded, “Whoa Dad! I am talking about democracy Pop.”
    Dad said, “I am talking about a Democracy. You see son, if you don’t like the State of Ohio, Try Kentucky and if that doesn’t work maybe California will suit you. Or perhaps you work for Ford Motor Company, but you are really unhappy so you start working for General Motors or Chyrsler. But when there is only one state or one competing automobile company the people are just up a creek without paddle. The best mankind can do is keep the dictators divided instead of having one very bad leader.” Democracy is an illusion, but it works.”

    God bless the Egyptians!!!

  • Byzcat

    Who speaks for the Copts? They represent 10% of the Egyptian people and are the descendants of the indigenous Egyptians, not the Arab invaders. They suffer significant persecution and marginalization under the present Egyptian regime, but face extermination under ElBaradei and the Muslim Brotherhood. This appears to be another case of untimely meddling by the West that will bring unintended and horrific consequences for Christians living in Muslim countries.

  • Jake

    At the end of the day, all these riots in the middle east are great for the US and Israel. Why? Because they can put there spin on any and all these uprisings and use it to there advantage. They can use all this instability to attempt to impose their stamp of democracy on every country, followed their Corporations to drive to enslave us all

  • Agree completely with Michael and that is as close to my story too. I also happen to live in Perth, although I think Brendan O’Connell went a bit far myself mate and was playing it to lose. He set our cause back by losing when he could have won that case.

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